Good day all. For the last month or so, protesters in Hong Kong have been demanding a return to their status per the agreement with the British when Hong Kong was returned to China.
Surprising absolutely no one with 2 functioning brain cells, the People’s Republic of China, (PRC), pretty much reneged on that agreement, and with the installation of “President for life” Xi Jinping, things have taken a turn for the worse. Xi has sent troops to Hong Kong and ordered the police in the city to start arresting the leaders of the protests. Until recently, the Hong Kong police were seen by the protesters as, if not on their side, at least not as “The enemy.” That has changed now.
Things are beginning to get dangerously violent in Hong Kong and there is a fair possibility that this could turn into another Tienanmen Square massacre. Here are the details of what’s happening from the BBC:
Hong Kong riot police have used tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannon to disperse crowds as tens of thousands marched in the city, defying a ban.
The ban, as I understand it, is on these protests.
Officers also fired live warning shots as they tried to clear the streets.
Oh this is not good. In the United States, along with most countries, police do not fire warning shots. There is to much danger of them being misunderstood or worse, hitting people by mistake.
Protesters lit fires, threw petrol bombs and attacked the parliament building. A number of people were later held as they fled into metro stations.
The people who ran into the metro stations, (That would be the subway here and the underground in London), didn’t do themselves any favors. I’m sure the idea was to use the trains as a means of escape, but the subway’s are easy to shutdown and all exits blocked.
On Friday, several key pro-democracy activists and lawmakers in China’s special administrative region were arrested.
And will be executed no doubt, if they haven’t been already.
The protest movement grew out of rallies against a controversial extradition bill – now suspended – which would have allowed criminal suspects to be sent to mainland China for trial.
As I recall, Hong Kong still follows the British legal system to a great extent. (Innocent until proven guilty) Shipping prisoners to the Mainland would all but guarantee that there would be no real trials and the suspects would have zero rights.
It has since become a broader pro-democracy movement in which clashes have grown more violent.
The PRC started cracking down on the people in Hong Kong soon after the British pulled out. However, they were a bit hesitant to “Kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.” Then Xi took power and his goals are flat out totalitarian. Hong Kong having a separate system where people actually have rights could not be allowed to stand, hence the crack down now underway.
On Friday police had appealed to members of the public to cut ties with “violent protesters” and had warned people not to take part in the banned march. Police made a number of arrests late on Saturday.
I suspect that the police taking these actions are the only reason the PLA, (People’s Liberation Army), hasn’t tried moving into Hong Kong. However, if the police are forced back, or flat out overrun by the protesters, I have little doubt the PLA will be ordered in, and then the real disaster begins for both sides.
Hong Kong is part of China, but enjoys “special freedoms”.
And, as mentioned before, those freedoms are something that any authoritarian or totalitarian regime can not tolerate.
Those are set to expire in 2047, and many in Hong Kong do not want to become “another Chinese city”.
I think that the Chinese government has decided to “Expire” those “Special Freedoms” a lot sooner that 2047.
Beijing has repeatedly condemned the protesters and described their actions as “close to terrorism”. The protests have frequently escalated into violence between police and activists, with injuries on both sides.
This was the same load of horse manure the PRC used against the practice of Falun Gong in 1999. They decided a group of people, who were basically harmless, were a threat to the rulers and proceeded to destroy them. (In case you were wondering, Bill “Bubba Horndog” Clinton was president and since he had sold out to the Chinese, did pretty much nothing)
Activists are increasingly concerned that China might use military force to intervene. On Thursday, Beijing moved a new batch of troops into Hong Kong, a move Chinese state media described as a routine annual rotation.
And they are right to be worried. When the Chinese Government moved in on the Tienanmen Square protests, they “Rotated” troops in who weren’t from the area. This was to prevent the soldiers who were local to the area and may have known people involved from either refusing the orders to crush them, or worse, joining them.
If Xi decides to send in troops to crush the democracy movement in Hong Kong, there will be a number of repercussions. First, tactical. Tienanmen Square is a wide open area, with no cover, perfect for mowing down people. (I’ve been there and you have no real idea just how vast that square is)
The people in Hong Kong, unlike most of China, know exactly what happened in the 1989 when the PLA moved in. This is where things could get “Interesting.” The PLA will send in armor, tanks and personnel carriers. If the protesters decide to resist, the PLA will be facing something that few armies have experience in. Urban combat in a built up, modern city. (The United States is one of the few with that experience)
Tanks do not do well in the closed in streets of an urban area. They can be easily trapped and set on fire. While the protesters do not have guns, (There are not a lot floating around the city outside of government hands), they do have one of the oldest anti-armor weapons around, the Molotov Cocktail. This is just a large bottle filled with gasoline. Breaks a few bottles over the engine compartment of any tank, then set it on fire, and you have an exploding tank.
Personnel Carriers are more maneuverable then tanks, but their armor is a lot thinner. They also burn quite well. The narrow streets with high rises on both sides will make it very dangerous for the PLA soldiers, and as they become casualties, their weapons and equipment will become available to the protesters. While unlikely, it isn’t beyond the realm of possibility that the PLA could be defeated and driven out. At that point, decisions will have to be made. Those decisions could include killing the goose as it were and flat out destroying the city and killing everyone inside.
This brings us to the second major repercussion, world opinion. When the Tienanmen Square massacre happened, we had the bad luck of having George Herbert Walker “New World Order” Bush as president. He was a full bore globalist and pushed many “Free Trade” deals that actually hurt America. He didn’t do very much, other then pay lip service and a few minor sanctions, to punish China. I won’t even bother with Slick Willy Clinton. That corrupt scumbag sent China everything they needed to keep their strategic missiles from blowing up.
This time should be different. We have Donald J. Trump as president and he has been waging a trade war with China, and has been winning. (His goal is to force China to actually abide by their trade agreements and to stop stealing intellectual property of companies that have a presence in China) If the Chinese government does pull a “Tienanmen Mark II” and move troops into Hong Kong and kill thousands, President Trump might just close out all trade with China and start pressuring the Eurotrash in France, Germany and Brussels.
If he succeeds in isolating China, well, at that point who knows what could happen? China has been building up their military, and they might try something stupid like invading Taiwan. Relations between President Trump’s administration and Taiwan are very good, much to the disgust of the “China hands” in the United States and Europe. There have been a number of very quiet business and trade deals being made. Military sales have been flat, but U.S. ships have been patrolling the waters around Taiwan, which isn’t making the PRC very happy.
If President Xi sends in troops and there is a bloodbath in Hong Kong, regardless of the outcome, it’s entirely possible that President Trump might reverse the sellout by Jimmy Carter and restore full diplomatic relations with Taiwan. (Which will also cause the “China hands” heads to explode)
I have no idea what will happen. One of the problems is “Face.” If push comes to shove, President Xi will feel he has no choice but to crush the protests in Hong Kong, no matter the cost, otherwise he may seem to be weak. If he is seen as weak, his hold on power won’t last long. Xi will do absolutely anything to prevent that possibility.
There is curse purported to have come from China. “May you live in interesting times.” While this is probably not a Chinese curse, if things go sideways, the people of Hong Kong and the Pacific Rim may very well find themselves living in “Interesting times.” Personally, I would rather not.
Thatisall
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