Good day all. So, who had Russian Civil War in 2023 on their Bingo card? It seems that the Wagner group, which is a Russian mercenary group, may have turned on the Russian/Putin government. This is a breaking story, and forget the 72 hour rule, this might need the 2 week rule.
The Wagner Group has been used by the Putin regime as cannon fodder in their war on the Ukraine. Few of them are all that well trained and have a long list of war crimes to their “credit.” The leadership of the Wagner group may be on the outs with the Regime, and there are a lot of reports that the Russians have fired on them. Here are what details I have from Fox News:
After calling for an armed rebellion to remove Russia’s defense minister, Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, announced Saturday morning that he and his troops reached the city of Rostov-on-Don. Prigozhin posted confirmation of his arrival in the city, which is home to the Russian military headquarters overseeing the war in Ukraine, in a social media video, according to The Associated Press.
Obviously, there isn’t a lot of alternate sources out there to confirm or deny what Prigozhin claims. However, if this is accurate, it could escalate to an insurrection/civil war not seen since the Communists took over in 1917.
In the video, he claimed that his forces had taken control of military facilities in Rostov-on-Don, including the air field. Other videos posted on social media showed military vehicles and tanks on the streets.
One of the rumors I heard was that the Wagner Group had taken control of the Russian supply depots. If so, this means they have a lot of beans and bullets to throw at Putin’s forces.
It was not immediately clear how he entered the city, which is under heightened security following Prigozhin’s threat, or how many troops he brought with him.
I suspect he brought all he had. I’ve heard other rumors that a number of regular Russian troops have joined them.
Despite Wagner playing a crucial role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Prigozhin has been feuding with the defense ministry, accusing Russian military officials of starving his troops of weapons and ammunition.
Feuding? Well, that’s one way to put it. The Russian Senior command hates Prigozhin and it looks like the feeling is mutual.
In a series of angry video and audio recordings on Friday, Prigozhin accused Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of ordering a rocket strike on the private military contractor’s field camps where the group is fighting on behalf of Russia in Ukraine.
“This is not a military coup, but a march of justice,” Prigozhin declared. “The evil embodied by the country’s military leadership must be stopped.”
If true, that the Russian high command ordered a strike on the Wagner group, then I could see how Prigozhin might be annoyed and take offense. Now as to what Russia and Putin intend to do about this?
According to state news agency Taas, the National Anti-Terrorism Committee, part of the Federal Security Services, will be opening a criminal investigation into Prigozhin on charges of calling for an armed rebellion. The report states that Russian President Vladimir Putin was kept informed of the situation.
Depending on variables, there could be as many as 40,000 men under the Wagner Group. I checked a map and Rostov-on-the-Don is about 700 miles from Moscow. Unless there are mass desertions and defections to Prigozhin and the Wagner Group, I don’t see him “Marching on Moscow.” He may have a few hundred of his men in the city and they can do a lot of damage before they are wiped out. The Putin Regime is taking this very seriously.
Moscow appeared to be take the threat seriously, as the National Guard and riot police were sent to provide security for key facilities in Moscow, which includes transport infrastructure and government agencies, according to Taas.
I’m curious on how this will affect the War in the Ukraine. If the Russian military has to move against the Wagner Group, that will require pulling troops and equipment out of that war and moving on what amounts to a couple of divisions. A full blown battle between the Russian Army and the Wagner Group is going to be devastating to the Russian forces.
The mercenaries know what is going to happen to them if they surrender, so they may decide to fight to the death. Any general will tell you that fighting a competent force, (For the sake of argument, we will assume the Wagner Group is actually competent), with nothing to lose is going to wreck any force sent against it. They are going to need to send a huge force against them.
The question is, where are they going to get them from? The Ukrainians have shot the Russian Army to pieces and are currently engaged in an offensive. If they pull forces from the Ukrainian Front, that’s going to open things up for the Ukrainians. If they transfer troops from Siberia, that weakens their defenses against China. (Don’t let the current Glasnost full you. The Russians and Chinese don’t trust each other) This mutiny is putting Putin between a rock and a hard place. Meanwhile, for the rest of us?
Thatisall
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