Good day all. I posted a blog entry on the news that the Russian Wagner Group had mutinied and had taken the city of Rostov-on-the-Don. At the time, I said that I couldn’t see the Wagner Group advancing on Moscow. The distance between the two cities is about 700 miles, and moving an armored force, or any large force that distance is a logistical nightmare. (Just ask the Nazis)
Well, it looks like I was wrong and the Wagner Group is moving on Moscow. Here are some of the details from Fox News:
Armed rebels with the Wagner Group are moving north through Russian territory and appear to be heading for Moscow, according to multiple reports.
Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is leading what he calls a “march for justice” to oust Russia’s military leadership. Overnight, the mercenary group’s forces seized control of Russian military facilities in Rostov-on-Don, a city of more than a million people near the border with Ukraine. The seizure is significant — Rostov is home to the Russian military headquarters overseeing the military supply line fueling Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
If they’ve cut off the fuel and ammunition supplies to the Russian forces in the Ukraine, this is going to put them in a world of hurt, and will help the Ukrainian forces.
Further Wagner troops are reported to be moving through Vorenezh Oblast, a city about 300 miles north of Rostov-on-Don. An intelligence update from the U.K. Ministry of Defense indicated Wagner units are “almost certainly aiming to get to Moscow.”
300 miles? That is a lot further then I would have thought. While wheeled vehicles won’t have a problem, tracked vehicles such as tanks and personnel carriers need to stop for maintenance as well as fuel. Tanks aren’t really meant to run hundreds of miles, even on good roads. (I’ll let people who have experience with tracked vehicles provide better details in the comments section) I’m also wondering what resistance the Wagner group is actually facing.
“With very limited evidence of fighting between Wagner and Russian security forces, some have likely remained passive, acquiescing to Wagner,” the Ministry of Defense said.
Well, that tells me that there may not be a lot of support for Putin. Of course, these are probably poorly equipped and trained troops and might have just stood back and not die.
A Wagner convoy with armed vehicles was also seen traveling north on the M4 motorway, which links Voronezh and Moscow in the Lipetsk region, the BBC reported. The regional governor, Igor Artamonov, said Wagner is moving “equipment” in the region and has asked residents to stay home and avoid traveling.
Apparently, the Wagner Group has seized military supply points in Voronezh. The governor of the area has, of course, said that they are moving to put down the mutiny. (Good luck with that)
“Law enforcement agencies and authorities … are taking all necessary measures to ensure the safety of the population. The situation is under control,” Igor Artamonov said per the BBC.
In other words, they are standing back and directing traffic. There is no realistic way for the civilian law enforcement groups to do much else. They are facing combat troops armed with tanks, machine guns and artillery. If the Wagner Group chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, keeps his troops on a tight leash and they don’t bother the civilians, they just might make it to Moscow.
And since this is an ever changing situation, it now looks like the Wagner group has halted it’s advance on Moscow. Here are those details from Newsmax:
Mutinous Russian mercenary fighters who surged most of the way to Moscow have agreed to turn back to avoid bloodshed, their leader said on Saturday, in a de-escalation of what had become a major challenge to President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power.
The fighters of the Wagner private army run by former Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin were already most of the way to the capital, having captured the city of Rostov and set off on an 680-mile race to Moscow.
In an audio message, Prigozhin said the fighters would return to base because of the risk of blood being spilled.
There is only one way Prigozhin would have stopped his advance on Moscow. He got something from Putin, and in a way that allows both Putin and Prigozhin to save face. I wonder what general or senior civilian government official is going to “Suddenly fall out of a 15 story window” next?
Putin would have had to give up something major, and also provide something to insure Prigozhin doesn’t have a fatal accident, illness or get run over by a tank. From what little I can tell, there was nothing between Rostov and Moscow that could have stopped the Wagner group. As they say, the 72 hour rule is in effect.
That is all
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